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Shipbuilding
market forecast for passenger vessel
projects: Modest, but with a steady growth in
fleet size and capacity.
The latest Shipbuilding Market
Forecast, published by Lloyd's Register Fairplay Research, predicts continued
modest-but-steady growth for the passenger ship sector over the next five years.
The monthly research report provides detailed analysis and forecasts covering
all sectors of the passenger ship market, including passenger and cargo ferries,
cruise ships and large private yachts.
"The projected falloff in newbuildings for passenger ships is relatively small
compared to other sectors of the shipping industry," observed Niklas Bengtsson,
report co-author. "This is because the passenger ship sector largely escaped the
ordering frenzy of the last few years. The supply-and-demand environment for
passenger vessels is different than for other sectors, which are now suffering
from severe overcapacity."
The largest sector in this group is ferries, with a total fleet size of 6,316
ships as of May 2009. They are roughly divided 50-50 between passenger-only
vessels, and those carrying passengers as well as rolling cargo (generally
referred to as "ro-pax" in the maritime industry). The annual growth rate of
0.5% over the past five years will slow very slightly to 0.4% during the next
five years, according to the report. That translates into a total of 518 new
ships being delivered by shipyards through 2013, down from 637 in the previous
five years.
The cruise ship fleet, which currently stands at 507 ships worldwide, will grow
at an annual rate of 2% during the next five years, virtually the same as the
previous five years. The relatively flat growth curve is a reflection of the
cautious approach of the larger cruise ship operators when it comes to capital
investments, according to the report.
"The short-term outlook for the cruise industry is overshadowed by the current
economic crisis, but given that consumer confidence at least has flattened out
at the bottom, a turn upward seems highly likely in the second half of 2009,"
said Bengtsson. "However, as far as the bottom line is concerned, the level of
earnings will probably be quite low for all the large players. For smaller
players, the outlook is even bleaker."
The report also predicts that the annual growth rates in new, large private
yachts will slow from an average of 10.9% during the past decade to 4.4% in the
next five years. The current fleet of 1,230 yachts will increase by 226
newbuilds through 2013.
The Shipbuilding Market Forecast is a monthly report published by Lloyd's
Register - Fairplay Research. Each report examines a specific sector of the
world shipping market, providing a detailed five-year shipbuilding forecast,
including new orders, deliveries and demolitions, with a comprehensive
presentation of graphs and tables. |
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Worldwide Travel & Cruise Assoc., Inc.
150 S. University Dr. Ste E,
Plantation, FL 33324 - USA
Tel: +1 954 452 8800 Fax: +1 954
252 3945
EMail:
sales@cruiseco.com |
